Slower job growth in British Columbia's economy will mean slower increases in home sales and property values through to 2012, the B.C. Real Estate Association said Thursday.
And by the end of 2012, the association expects the high-flying prices in some of B.C.s bigger markets to show small declines.
Home sales through the realtor-controlled Multiple Listing Service should hit 74,640 by the end of 2011, which is up four per cent from 2010, and then rise to 80,300 in 2012, association chief economist Cameron Miur said in his report.
However, those estimates are below B.C.s long-term average for sales and the forecast for 2011 represents reduced expectations from Muir's forecast from earlier this year that B.C. should see 78,200 sales this year.
"Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer deamnd for the next few years will be relatively moderate,' Muir said in releasing the report.
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The following are the forecasts for each B.C. region:
Victoria:
2011 sales, 5,855 -4.6%; 2011 Avg. price $498,00 -1.3%
2012 sales, 6200 +5.4%; 2012 Avg. price $500,000 +0.4%
Vancouver Island:
2011 sales 6,490; 2011 Avg. price $327,500 +0.1%
2012 sales 6,700; 2012 Avg. price $328,000 +0.2%
Powell River Sunshine Coast:
2011 sales 280 +3.7%; Avg. price $236,000 -0.9%
2012 sales 290 +3.6%; Avg. price $240,000 +1.7%
Greater Vancouver:
2011 sales 33,600 +7.9%; Avg.price $769,000
2012 sales 34,500 +2.7%; Avg. price $742,000 -3.5%
Fraser Valley:
2011 sales 14,800 +5.9%; Avg. price $505,000 +11.9%
2012 sales 15,300 +3.4%; Avg. price $498,000 -1.4%
Chilliwack and District:
2011 sales 1,980; Avg. price $299,000 -1.7%
2012 sales 2,075; Avg. price $302,000
Kamloops and District:
2011 sales 2,060 -2.9%; Avg. price $307,000 +1%
2012 sales 2,140 +3.9%; Avg. price $308,000 +0.8%
Okanagan Mainline (includes Kelowna and Vernon):
2011 sales 4,910 +1.5%; Avg. price $385,000 -2.4%
2012 sales 5,200 +5.9%; Avg. price $388,000 +0.8%
South Okanagan (Penticton, Osoyoos and Oliver):
2011 sales 1,240 -0.4%; Avg. price $307,000 -4%
2012 sales 1,390 +3.7%; Avg. price $309,000 +0.7%
Northern Lights (Dawson Creek and north);
2011 sales 440 -13.6%; Avg. price $214,000 +4.3%
2012 sales 475 +8%; Avg. price $218,000 +1.9%
Kootenay:
2011 sales 1,850 -7.35%; Avg. price $264,000 -3.6%
2012 sales 1,960 +5.9%; Avg. price $265,000 +0.4%
B.C. Northern (from Prince George to the West Coast):
2011 sales 3,865 +5.1%; Avg. price $218,000 +3.4%
2012 sales 4,070 +5.3%; Avg. price $221,000 +1.4%
Source of Photo and Text: The Vancouver Sun
